The 2011/12 heat load forecasting season has ended.
Our Meteorologist has planned to issue new Seasonal Outlooks for the October – December 2012 period in late September 2012.
During the forecasting season seasonal outlooks are provided for the regions highlighted on this map.
- Western Australia
- Southeast and Central Australia
- Northern Australia
About the Seasonal Outlooks
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier or warmer or cooler than average conditions over a three-month period. The outlooks are produced for three regions; Western Australia; Northern Australia encompassing Queensland and the Northern Territory; Southeast and Central Australia encompassing South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall / temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.
An example:
A region is given a 60% to 70% chance of receiving above average rainfall for an outlook period, say October to December. This means that for every 10 years with similar ocean patterns to those observed, about six or seven October to December periods would be expected to be wetter than average over the region, while about three or four would be drier.
Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were short range forecasts. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local Department of Agriculture or Department of Primary Industry.
Improved linkages between the seasonal outlooks for temperature and rainfall and seasonal HLI and AHLU will become available over future forecast seasons. We at Katestone Environmental are working to establish firm links between high heat load events and Australia’s climate drivers, to better serve the meat and livestock industry.
